10連試行回数による装備単体引き当て確率を計算してみた。

PS4版ボーダーブレイクの人気武器ピックアップで爆死したので、自分の運がどれくらい悪かったのかを知るために、10連の回数での装備単体の入手確率を計算してみました。

人気武器ピックアップと現在の通常の武器ロットの確率もついでに計算しました。

まずは10連ガチャ1回での狙いの装備以外を引き続ける確率を計算。

	人気武器★2	人気武器★3	新武器★2	新武器★3	通常武器★2	通常武器★3
単体％	1.5	0.875	1.35	0.525	0.409	0.159
10連目％	7.5	1.25	6.75	0.75	2.045	0.227
外れ確率単体	0.985	0.99125	0.9865	0.99475	0.99591	0.99841
外れ確率10連目	0.925	0.9875	0.9325	0.9925	0.97955	0.99773
10連外れ確率	0.8073610752	0.9124013249	0.8251305117	0.9465772137	0.9440770657	0.9835429526

後は1から狙いの装備以外を引き続ける確率を引いて100倍するだけ。

10連の回数	人気武器★2(％)	人気武器★3(％)	新武器★2(％)	新武器★3(％)	通常武器★2(％)	通常武器★3(％)	コアシード
1	19.26389248	8.759867513	17.48694883	5.342278627	5.592293431	1.645704738	2000
2	34.81680942	16.75238224	31.91596386	10.39915784	10.8718494	3.264326035	4000
3	47.37362917	24.04476326	43.82178442	15.18588448	15.85615711	4.856309605	6000
4	57.51151666	30.69834137	53.64564023	19.71689085	20.56172771	6.422093826	8000
5	65.69645241	36.76907485	61.75160341	24.00583823	25.004149	7.962109862	10000
6	72.30465093	42.30802012	68.44008095	28.06565809	29.19813704	9.47678178	12000
7	77.6398532	47.36176112	73.95894784	31.90859107	33.15758498	10.96652667	14000
8	81.94728784	51.97280111	78.51273331	35.54622385	36.89560896	12.43175476	16000
9	85.4249429	56.1799201	82.27020064	38.98952416	40.42459167	13.87286952	18000
10	88.23266623	60.01850105	85.37060158	42.24887377	43.75622332	15.29026779	20000
11	90.49951275	63.52082739	87.928837	45.33409984	46.90154035	16.68433987	22000
12	92.3296764	66.71635458	90.03971509	48.25450454	49.87096202	18.05546963	24000
13	93.80727929	69.63195782	91.78146502	51.01889309	52.67432492	19.40403465	26000
14	95.00023835	72.29215808	93.21863602	53.63560029	55.32091554	20.73040627	28000
15	95.96338706	74.71932832	94.40448967	56.11251571	57.81950104	22.03494973	30000
16	96.74099584	76.93388167	95.3829737	58.4571074	60.17835831	23.31802426	32000
17	97.36880689	78.95444307	96.19035073	60.67644448	62.40530137	24.57998317	34000
18	97.8756771	80.79800598	96.85654215	62.77721838	64.50770723	25.82117396	36000
19	98.28490438	82.48007522	97.40623701	64.76576308	66.49254039	27.04193841	38000
20	98.61529856	84.01479741	97.85980702	66.64807419	68.36637585	28.24261269	40000
21	98.88204596	85.41507998	98.23406147	68.429827	70.13542093	29.42352741	42000
22	99.09740742	86.69269965	98.54287024	70.1163936	71.80553583	30.58500776	44000
23	99.27128188	87.85840153	98.79767777	71.71285912	73.38225299	31.72737358	46000
24	99.41166136	88.92198947	99.00792725	73.224037	74.87079551	32.85093943	48000
25	99.52499828	89.89240852	99.1814105	74.65448355	76.27609436	33.9560147	50000
26	99.6165021	90.77782014	99.32455683	76.00851166	77.60280478	35.04290369	52000
27	99.69037872	91.58567088	99.44267123	77.29020381	78.85532166	36.11190571	54000
28	99.75002383	92.32275496	99.54013103	78.5034244	80.03779412	37.1633151	56000
29	99.79817897	92.99527146	99.62054808	79.65183136	81.15413924	38.1974214	58000
30	99.83705756	93.6088764	99.68690264	80.73888723	82.20805508	39.21450937	60000
31	99.86844662	94.16873036	99.74165382	81.76786954	83.20303284	40.21485906	62000
32	99.89378892	94.67954185	99.78683068	82.74188075	84.14236853	41.19874596	64000
33	99.91424931	95.14560694	99.82410749	83.66385756	85.02917382	42.16644099	66000
34	99.93076823	95.57084534	99.85486572	84.53657981	85.86638635	43.11821061	68000
35	99.94410496	95.95883342	99.88024528	85.3626788	86.65677949	44.05431691	70000
36	99.95487252	96.31283426	99.90118673	86.14464528	87.40297154	44.97501767	72000
37	99.96356583	96.63582509	99.91846615	86.88483694	88.10743433	45.88056641	74000
38	99.97058447	96.93052236	99.93272394	87.58548549	88.7725015	46.77121249	76000
39	99.97625105	97.19940453	99.94448847	88.24870344	89.40037616	47.64720117	78000
40	99.98082602	97.44473298	99.95419574	88.87649045	89.99313823	48.50877366	80000
41	99.98451967	97.66857099	99.96220551	89.47073932	90.5527513	49.35616721	82000
42	99.98750179	97.87280108	99.96881461	90.03324177	91.08106917	50.18961517	84000
43	99.98990943	98.05914089	99.97426798	90.56569376	91.57984195	51.00934703	86000
44	99.99185327	98.22915757	99.97876773	91.06970069	92.0507219	51.81558853	88000
45	99.99342264	98.38428103	99.9824806	91.54678216	92.49526886	52.60856167	90000
46	99.9946897	98.52581587	99.98554421	91.99837661	92.91495544	53.38848482	92000
47	99.99571267	98.65495244	99.98807209	92.42584562	93.31117192	54.15557273	94000
48	99.99653858	98.77277683	99.99015792	92.83047805	93.68523082	54.91003664	96000
49	99.99720538	98.88027995	99.991879	93.21349389	94.03837124	55.65208431	98000
50	99.99774373	98.97836594	99.99329911	93.57604796	94.37176301	56.38192006	100000
51	99.99817838	99.06785973	99.99447089	93.91923338	94.68651054	57.09974486	102000
52	99.99852929	99.14951399	99.99543777	94.24408487	94.98365646	57.80575639	104000
53	99.99881261	99.22401543	99.99623556	94.55158189	95.26418511	58.50014906	106000
54	99.99904135	99.29199065	99.99689385	94.84265157	95.52902578	59.18311407	108000
55	99.99922602	99.35401133	99.99743702	95.11817149	95.77905578	59.8548395	110000
56	99.99937512	99.41059909	99.99788521	95.37897237	96.01510336	60.51551031	112000
57	99.9994955	99.46222983	99.99825502	95.62584055	96.23795048	61.16530843	114000
58	99.99959268	99.50933778	99.99856016	95.85952033	96.44833532	61.80441279	116000
59	99.99967115	99.55231914	99.99881195	96.08071629	96.64695483	62.43299937	118000
60	99.9997345	99.59153539	99.9990197	96.29009535	96.83446696	63.05124128	120000
61	99.99978564	99.62731635	99.99919112	96.48828879	97.01149285	63.65930876	122000
62	99.99982694	99.65996294	99.99933257	96.67589419	97.17861894	64.25736923	124000
63	99.99986028	99.68974974	99.99944929	96.85347718	97.33639885	64.8455874	126000
64	99.99988719	99.71692725	99.99954559	97.0215732	97.48535524	65.42412524	128000
65	99.99990892	99.74172405	99.99962505	97.18068906	97.62598156	65.99314204	130000
66	99.99992647	99.76434868	99.99969062	97.3313045	97.75874363	66.55279452	132000
67	99.99994063	99.78499142	99.99974472	97.47387365	97.88408127	67.10323676	134000
68	99.99995207	99.80382589	99.99978936	97.60882636	98.00240965	67.64462035	136000
69	99.9999613	99.82101048	99.99982619	97.73656952	98.11412076	68.17709437	138000
70	99.99996876	99.83668973	99.99985659	97.85748828	98.21958467	68.70080544	140000
71	99.99997478	99.85099549	99.99988167	97.97194723	98.31915072	69.21589776	142000
72	99.99997964	99.86404809	99.99990236	98.08029146	98.41314874	69.72251319	144000
73	99.99998356	99.8759573	99.99991943	98.18284764	98.50189012	70.22079123	146000
74	99.99998673	99.88682327	99.99993352	98.27992498	98.58566882	70.71086908	148000
75	99.99998928	99.8967374	99.99994515	98.37181618	98.66476237	71.19288169	150000
76	99.99999135	99.90578307	99.99995474	98.45879829	98.73943277	71.6669618	152000
77	99.99999301	99.91403635	99.99996265	98.54113358	98.80992739	72.13323996	154000
78	99.99999436	99.92156665	99.99996918	98.61907029	98.87647975	72.59184455	156000
79	99.99999545	99.92843731	99.99997457	98.69284341	98.93931029	73.04290186	158000
80	99.99999632	99.9347061	99.99997902	98.76267535	98.99862718	73.4865361	160000
81	99.99999703	99.94042576	99.99998269	98.82877668	99.05462688	73.92286943	162000
82	99.9999976	99.94564439	99.99998572	98.8913467	99.10749492	74.35202201	164000
83	99.99999807	99.95040587	99.99998821	98.95057404	99.15740642	74.77411199	166000
84	99.99999844	99.95475025	99.99999027	99.0066373	99.20452673	75.18925563	168000
85	99.99999874	99.95871407	99.99999198	99.05970551	99.24901193	75.59756722	170000
86	99.99999898	99.96233066	99.99999338	99.10993866	99.29100938	75.99915922	172000
87	99.99999918	99.96563044	99.99999454	99.15748821	99.33065822	76.39414219	174000
88	99.99999934	99.96864117	99.99999549	99.20249754	99.36808978	76.78262491	176000
89	99.99999946	99.97138816	99.99999628	99.24510235	99.40342805	77.16471435	178000
90	99.99999957	99.97389452	99.99999693	99.28543108	99.4367901	77.54051573	180000
91	99.99999965	99.97618133	99.99999747	99.32360534	99.46828645	77.91013253	182000
92	99.99999972	99.97826781	99.99999791	99.35974023	99.49802144	78.27366652	184000
93	99.99999977	99.98017152	99.99999828	99.39394469	99.52609355	78.63121782	186000
94	99.99999982	99.98190847	99.99999858	99.42632185	99.55259579	78.98288488	188000
95	99.99999985	99.98349326	99.99999883	99.45696934	99.57761595	79.32876454	190000
96	99.99999988	99.98493923	99.99999903	99.48597955	99.6012369	79.66895204	192000
97	99.9999999	99.98625854	99.9999992	99.51343996	99.6235369	80.00354106	194000
98	99.99999992	99.98746227	99.99999934	99.53943335	99.64458983	80.33262374	196000
99	99.99999994	99.98856056	99.99999946	99.5640381	99.66446541	80.65629068	198000
100	99.99999995	99.98956264	99.99999955	99.5873284	99.68322948	80.97463102	200000
101	99.99999996	99.99047694	99.99999963	99.60937447	99.70094422	81.28773242	202000
102	99.99999997	99.99131115	99.99999969	99.63024277	99.7176683	81.59568109	204000
103	99.99999997	99.99207228	99.99999975	99.64999623	99.73345711	81.89856184	206000
104	99.99999998	99.99276674	99.99999979	99.66869441	99.74836298	82.19645807	208000
105	99.99999998	99.99340036	99.99999983	99.68639368	99.76243526	82.4894518	210000
106	99.99999999	99.99397848	99.99999986	99.7031474	99.77572057	82.77762372	212000
107	99.99999999	99.99450596	99.99999988	99.71900609	99.78826294	83.06105318	214000
108	99.99999999	99.99498723	99.9999999	99.73401757	99.8001039	83.33981823	216000
109	99.99999999	99.99542634	99.99999992	99.74822709	99.81128267	83.61399563	218000
110	99.99999999	99.99582699	99.99999993	99.7616775	99.8218363	83.88366088	220000
111	100	99.99619254	99.99999995	99.77440936	99.83179974	84.14888824	222000
112	100	99.99652607	99.99999996	99.78646104	99.84120599	84.40975074	224000
113	100	99.99683038	99.99999996	99.79786888	99.85008621	84.66632021	226000
114	100	99.99710803	99.99999997	99.80866729	99.85846983	84.9186673	228000
115	100	99.99736136	99.99999997	99.81888882	99.86638462	85.16686151	230000
116	100	99.99759251	99.99999998	99.82856428	99.87385678	85.41097117	232000
117	100	99.9978034	99.99999998	99.83772285	99.88091108	85.65106351	234000
118	100	99.99799582	99.99999999	99.84639215	99.88757088	85.88720464	236000
119	100	99.99817138	99.99999999	99.85459831	99.89385825	86.11945958	238000
120	100	99.99833157	99.99999999	99.86236607	99.89979401	86.34789229	240000
121	100	99.99847772	99.99999999	99.86971886	99.90539782	86.57256568	242000
122	100	99.99861107	99.99999999	99.87667884	99.91068825	86.7935416	244000
123	100	99.99873274	99.99999999	99.883267	99.91568283	87.01088091	246000
124	100	99.99884375	100	99.88950321	99.92039809	87.22464346	248000
125	100	99.99894503	100	99.89540625	99.92484966	87.43488811	250000
126	100	99.99903745	100	99.90099394	99.92905229	87.64167275	252000
127	100	99.99912177	100	99.90628312	99.93301989	87.84505433	254000
128	100	99.9991987	100	99.91128974	99.93676562	88.04508884	256000
129	100	99.99926889	100	99.91602889	99.94030187	88.24183138	258000
130	100	99.99933294	100	99.92051486	99.94364036	88.43533612	260000
131	100	99.99939137	100	99.92476118	99.94679216	88.62565634	262000
132	100	99.99944468	100	99.92878064	99.9497677	88.81284445	264000
133	100	99.99949333	100	99.93258538	99.95257684	88.996952	266000
134	100	99.99953771	100	99.93618686	99.95522888	89.17802969	268000
135	100	99.99957821	100	99.93959593	99.95773261	89.35612736	270000
136	100	99.99961516	100	99.94282289	99.96009633	89.53129408	272000
137	100	99.99964887	100	99.94587745	99.96232786	89.70357807	274000
138	100	99.99967963	100	99.94876882	99.9644346	89.87302677	276000
139	100	99.99970769	100	99.95150574	99.96642352	90.03968685	278000
140	100	99.9997333	100	99.95409644	99.96830121	90.2036042	280000
141	100	99.99975666	100	99.95654873	99.9700739	90.36482395	282000
142	100	99.99977798	100	99.95887002	99.97174746	90.52339049	284000
143	100	99.99979743	100	99.9610673	99.97332742	90.67934751	286000
144	100	99.99981517	100	99.96314719	99.97481903	90.83273793	288000
145	100	99.99983136	100	99.96511597	99.97622722	90.98360399	290000
146	100	99.99984613	100	99.96697957	99.97755667	91.13198725	292000
147	100	99.99985961	100	99.96874362	99.97881176	91.27792855	294000
148	100	99.99987191	100	99.97041342	99.97999667	91.4214681	296000
149	100	99.99988313	100	99.97199402	99.98111532	91.5626454	298000
150	100	99.99989337	100	99.97349017	99.9821714	91.70149935	300000

表計算ソフトの性能上、途中から100％になっている個所がありますが、現実にはごく僅かですが引けない確率が残っています。

ちなみに界隈用語の課金単位1リーフは262500コアシードに相当します。

課金額的に、多分、私は10連を16回前後引いた筈なので、それでAC-オーバーラップを引くことができなかった確率は1/4程度。

なーんだ、まあまあよくあることじゃん。

計算してみて認識したのですが、10連1回で狙いの★3武器を引ける確率が約8.76％あるというのはなかなか高い確率ですね。その一方で5万円課金してもその装備を引けない確率も同じくらいあると。

通常の武器ロットでは10連を100回しても狙いの★3武器を引けない確率が2割程度あることを考えれば、人気武器ピックアップは狙いの装備を手に入れるチャンスではあるわけですが、もう私はマテリアルピース代金としてしか課金しないかな。

偵察機はアウルはあって、それに妥協できないこともないですから、AC-オーバーラップのためだけに天井なしの課金ガチャを引くというのはどうもね。

ガチャは悪い文明。

セガには今からでも素材販売とゲームプレイによる作製条件解放に切り替えてほしいところ。